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How to read the signals

Every call cites three signals. Here is what each one measures, when it leans bullish or bearish, the trap to avoid, and where to check the real data before you lock. All links go to free, public sources we're not affiliated with.

Momentum

Recent price acceleration. Is the move speeding up or fading?

Momentum is the speed of the recent move. Compare the last one to three days against the previous week: is the move accelerating, flat, or fading?

Leans bullish when: Higher highs on consecutive days and RSI rising through the 50s without being stretched above 70.
Leans bearish when: Lower lows, RSI falling through 50, or a sharp move that stalls and reverses within a day.

The trap: Momentum works until it doesn't. A three-day surge is as likely to pause as to continue; check volume before you lean on it.

TradingView: BTC chart (opens in a new tab) · Add RSI or MACD from the indicators menu.
TradingView: ETH chart (opens in a new tab)
TradingView: SOL chart (opens in a new tab)
What RSI measures (opens in a new tab) · Plain explanation of the most-used momentum gauge.

Volume

Trading activity behind the move. Strong volume can confirm a direction.

Volume is how much was traded. It tells you whether a price move has participation behind it or is drifting on thin activity.

Leans bullish when: Price rises on rising volume. A breakout on the highest volume in a week is worth more than one on a quiet day.
Leans bearish when: Price rises on shrinking volume (buyers tiring), or falls on a volume spike (real selling).

The trap: Weekend volume is structurally low. Don't read a quiet Sunday as exhaustion.

CoinGecko: Bitcoin (opens in a new tab) · 24h volume across exchanges; switch to ETH or SOL from the search.
CoinMarketCap (opens in a new tab) · Spot volume and 24h change per asset.
Coinglass (opens in a new tab) · Derivatives volume, open interest and liquidations.

Volatility

How wide the price is swinging. High volatility means larger, less predictable moves.

Volatility is how wide the daily swings are. High volatility means the neutral band is easy to break; low volatility means Neutral is a live option.

Leans bullish when: Volatility contracting after a decline, then expanding on an up day.
Leans bearish when: Volatility expanding on red days, especially with liquidations.

The trap: Volatility is direction-neutral. It tells you how far the price may move, not which way.

Deribit DVOL (BTC) (opens in a new tab) · Implied volatility from options, the market's own forecast of swing size.
TradingView: Bollinger Bands (opens in a new tab) · Band width is a quick realised-volatility read.

Market Trend

The broader multi-day direction of the asset.

Trend is the multi-day direction. Where is price relative to its 7-day and 30-day average, and are the swing lows rising or falling?

Leans bullish when: Price above both averages with rising lows.
Leans bearish when: Price below both averages with lower highs.

The trap: Trend is the slowest signal. It's right most days and wrong exactly at the turns, which are the days everyone remembers.

TradingView: BTC chart (opens in a new tab) · Add a 7 and 30 period moving average.
CoinGecko: 7-day and 30-day change (opens in a new tab) · The table view shows 7d change for every asset.

Fear & Greed

Overall crypto market emotion, from extreme fear to extreme greed.

A single 0 to 100 number blending volatility, volume, social activity and dominance into a mood gauge for the whole market.

Leans bullish when: Readings under 25 (extreme fear) that stop falling.
Leans bearish when: Readings over 75 (extreme greed) with momentum slowing.

The trap: Extreme readings can persist for weeks. It's a condition, not a timing signal.

Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index (opens in a new tab) · The original daily index with history.
CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed (opens in a new tab) · Alternative methodology, useful as a second opinion.

Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin's share of total crypto market value. Shifts hint at risk appetite.

Bitcoin's share of total crypto market value. Rising dominance means money is favouring BTC over everything else.

Leans bullish when: For BTC: dominance rising with price. For ETH and SOL: dominance falling while BTC holds steady (rotation into alts).
Leans bearish when: For alts: dominance rising fast, which usually means risk-off flows out of smaller assets.

The trap: Dominance can rise because BTC goes up or because alts go down. Check which.

TradingView: BTC.D (opens in a new tab) · Dominance as a chart.
CoinGecko global charts (opens in a new tab) · Market cap share over time.

Market Breadth

How many assets are moving in the same direction as the leaders.

Breadth is how many assets are moving with the leaders. A rally in BTC with 80 of the top 100 green is broad; BTC up alone is narrow.

Leans bullish when: Most of the top 100 green on the day, small caps participating.
Leans bearish when: Leaders up while most assets are red (narrow), or nearly everything red at once.

The trap: Breadth confirms; it rarely leads. Use it to grade the quality of a move, not to predict one.

CoinGecko: top 100 (opens in a new tab) · Sort by 24h change and count the greens.
Coin360 heatmap (opens in a new tab) · One-glance breadth by market cap.

Getting better at making calls

Reading the market is half of it. The other half is knowing how good your own judgement is. These are the resources behind how Alphr scores you, and the places serious forecasters practise.

What a 60% hit rate means (opens in a new tab)
Brier scores: the standard way to grade probabilistic calls. Alphr uses simple hit rate on purpose; this is the deeper version.
Metaculus (opens in a new tab)
Forecasting community with calibration tracking. Good practice for the habit of committing before you know.
Good Judgment Open (opens in a new tab)
Open forecasting tournaments in the tradition of the Good Judgment Project.
Superforecasting (Tetlock & Gardner) (opens in a new tab)
Why some people are consistently better at this, and what they do differently: small updates, base rates, keeping score.
Calibration explained (opens in a new tab)
When you say 4/5 confidence, are you right 80% of the time? Your Call Profile tracks exactly this.

Three habits that show up in every good track record: commit before you look at the crowd, update in small steps rather than flipping, and keep the score even when it’s unflattering. Alphr enforces the first and does the third for you. How scoring works →

External links are provided for education only. Alphr is not affiliated with these sites, receives nothing for the links, and none of this is financial advice.

Alphr is an educational forecasting game using virtual points. It does not execute trades or provide financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile, and past forecasting performance does not predict future results.